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Value Gold ETF

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Value China A-Share ETF

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  • 黃金具潛在空間展現價值 (Chinese only)

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黃金具潛在空間展現價值 (Chinese only)

現貨金價在今年8月7日高見每盎斯2075美元後反覆下跌,3日後低見1862.5美元後反彈並呈三角形走勢,但明顯可見高位逐級下跌,9月21日收市價更低於8月11日大跌逾128美元當天的收市價,並跌穿三角形上升軌,這是否代表金價升浪已經結束?

供應或未能滿足需求

從供應來看,在1990至2009年間,黃金在市場的供應量約22億盎斯,平均每盎斯價格為440美元,但在2009至2019年間,黃金在市場的供應量大幅降至1.543億盎斯,只及前20年的7%,而平均每盎斯金價則升至1350美元。此外,278個已發現金礦中,約有一半(估計蘊藏量接近11億盎斯)仍未開採,餘下的金礦質素欠佳,反映目前已開採的金礦供應或未能滿足市場需求。

黃金價格受需求影響最大,且主要集中在珠寶首飾、投資及中央銀行方面的需求。關於珠寶首飾方面的需求,中國自然是焦點所在。世界黃金協會(WGC)早前就中國在珠寶方面的黃金需求所做的調查發現,62%的中國婦女表示已持有黃金,當中56%會在未來繼續購買黃金。雖然有30%從未買過黃金珠寶首飾,但未來會考慮。另外,調查反映18至24歲女性甚少接觸黃金,她們認為黃金太浮華,亦不合她們的風格,又認為黃金太難購買及價值不高。

產品銷售應更現代化

這是可以理解的,大多數年輕人不會將保值置於是否購買黃金的第一選項。不過,調查顯示,有意在未來12個月購買黃金的女性隨年齡增長而上升,18至24歲的佔比只有16%,但25至34歲升至36%,35至44及45至54歲年齡群組分別高達45%及43%,遠高於中國以外所有地區相同年齡群組的27%,這反映投身社會的一群較認同黃金的價值,並認為可以將黃金傳給下一代。

黃金有反映其傳統價值的時刻,但中國消費者「購物」並非單純的「購買」,當中涉及發現產品、娛樂、與朋友互動、KOL的宣傳等,這反映點對點的購買經驗的重要性無異於產品競爭優勢,若可針對與現代化女性更相關的方式去設計、宣傳及銷售,黃金將有更大的空間展現其價值。

料低息環境利好金價

聯儲局9月議息會議紀錄暗示,最快亦要到2023年才考慮加息(決策委員預測聯邦基金利率為0.1至1.4厘),紐西蘭儲備銀行已將負利率納入非常規貨幣政策工具之一,而英倫銀行及澳洲儲備銀行亦開始研究負利率的可能性,低息甚至負利率情況加劇對金價有利,且現時距離美國11月總統大選只剩五周,風險資產沽壓亦明顯增加。

現貨金價自本年3月份低位每盎斯1451美元升至8月最高2075美元,升幅已達43%,近期跟隨一眾非美貨幣展開調整絕對正常。新冠肺炎疫情在最近在歐美地區再度惡化,會否對經濟造成新一輪的打擊仍有待觀察,經過調整後的金價重拾升勢的機會不容抹殺。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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