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Value Gold ETF

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Value China A-Share ETF

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  • 上輪低息期升逾倍 金價追漲幅? (Chinese only)

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上輪低息期升逾倍 金價追漲幅? (Chinese only)

黃金持續上漲,今年上半年增長17%,單是7月升幅更達10%,反映疫情下的新常態無損黃金的投資需求,在環球風險資產反彈之際罕有地不減反增。

在7月28日,黃金價格創下新高,收市價和單日高位均打破倫敦金銀市場協會(LBMA)黃金價格(下午)的紀錄。LBMA下午黃金價格當日的收市價為每盎斯1940.9美元,超越了在2011年9月5日創下每盎斯1895.0美元的紀錄,並且在交易日內曾經一度突破每盎斯1981.3美元,亦高於對上一次亞洲交易時段每盎斯1921.2美元的單日高位。

黃金消費需求疲弱

黃金升勢凌厲,年初至今有實金儲備的ETF和類似產品的淨流入亦創下紀錄,截至7月27日,所有地區的流入量達478億美元。

不過,因部分經濟體增長不振,失業率持續高企,市場仍在計算疫情帶來的實質經濟影響,使環球消費意欲低沉,上半年黃金相關的需求雖主要由亞洲推動,但整體而言算是十分疲弱,當中珠寶需求暴跌46%,金條和硬幣亦下降17%。

前方多項政經風險

面對疫情對人民生活方式及經濟結構的不同轉變,環球央行察覺到前方尚有美中政治風險日增、美國11月大選、英國有可能在今年底硬脫歐等的政治風險,加上全球第二波疫情爆發、相關的封鎖政策致部分商業活動停擺,均為短期內的不明朗因素。因此央行皆期望結合量化寬鬆政策和其他非傳統政策措施,積極降低利率,批出大規模的救援計劃,以減輕當地就業和民生問題及應對下行風險。

在目前全球央行繼續放水,並維持超低息環境,或成為避險資金持續流入金市的原因,相信金價有較高機會再創新高。

金融海嘯後升逾倍

然而,回顧上一個寬鬆周期,2008年環球金融海嘯後,美國聯儲局擴大流動性及以債券購買計劃支持市場,金價從2008年初約每盎斯900美元的水平,至全球金融危機後3年共上漲一倍多。相比之下,自從全球的新冠肺炎疫情爆發開始以來,黃金的漲幅不到30%。比較過往的升勢動力,若是次周期的寬鬆延續,黃金或仍具有可觀的上升潛力。

 

投資涉及風險,往績不代表將來表現。以上資料僅供參考,並不構成任何投資建議。本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司(「盛寶」)之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但盛寶不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。投資者應注意投資涉及風險,基金單位價格可升亦可跌,基金過往業績並不表示將來的回報。投資者應參閱本基金之章程,以了解基金詳情及風險因素,並應特別了解如本基金從聯交所除牌之安排。基金章程可通過網頁獲得。投資者亦應注意,本基金與典型零售投資基金不同,只可以由參與證券商直接以大額增設或贖回基金單位。本文件並未經證監會審閱。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司。

 

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