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十月驚奇 黃金助避險 (Chinese only)

踏入今年最後一個季度,美國大選在即,民主黨參選人拜登在民調中仍然領先爭取連任的總統特朗普,有緊貼美國大選的讀者或認同,在充滿驚喜的10月(October surprises)評論拜登穩操勝券未免言之尚早。

選情之外,白宮在加碼疫後救市方案的議題上反覆不定,加上中美雙方爭端不斷,全球仍然寄望對付新冠肺炎的疫苗盡快推出,一重又一重的不確定性在前方等待着投資者越過。在組合配置中,投資哪種資產可減少被不同的未知之數支配?

減輕極端事件衝擊

筆者曾提及,黃金是其中一種避險資產,與傳統股債等風險資產之間的相關性頗低,一向受惠於追逐資產質素的資金。尤其在市場發生系統性風險時,黃金的避險特性尤其突出。系統性風險是一種不可分散且影響所有資產的風險。

世界黃金協會最新報告指出,在過去幾個重大的極端風險事件中,金價表現不一,但大多帶來正回報,更與作為未來波動性指標的VIX恐慌指數一同向上。由最近的新冠肺炎疫情,到2010至11年間的歐洲主權債務危機和2001年的911恐怖襲擊,甚至較久遠的大蕭條亦然,投資部分資金於黃金,或多或少能減輕整個投資組合所受的下挫。

與股價呈正相關性

黃金的低相關性不僅在市場大幅動盪時發揮作用,它還可以在風險資產升市時跟隨向上。世界黃金協會比較近20年的數據,研究MSCI世界指數和黃金走勢。當環球股票錄得大升市的時候,金價與股價呈現正相關性。

有趣地,當股價大幅下挫,意即偏離長期平均跌逾兩個標準差(Standard deviation)的時候,金價則與股市呈反向關係。黃金既能捕捉資產上漲,同時又能避險之特性不言而喻。

流動性與美債匹配

除了金價表現之比較,投資者在配置的時候,亦會關注資產的流動性,會否因流動性不佳而要折讓出售。全球黃金市場龐大,期貨和交易所買賣的黃金相關產品合計,每日平均交易量逾1400億美元,僅次於1至3年期的美國國債。

對於黃金ETF的流動性,投資者往往專注於二級市場的成交量,通常忽略的更大量隱藏於散戶交易背後的流動性,便是一級市場在ETF產品所參與的角色。就香港而言,有本地上市的黃金ETF處於亞洲交易時段,配合二級市場的交易需求增加,一級市場的流動性十分關鍵,可供造市商在本地交易期間創造和贖回ETF單位,支撐活躍的交易量。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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