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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
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  • 地緣政治緊及高通脹,金價有力企穩1900美元 (Chinese only)

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地緣政治緊及高通脹,金價有力企穩1900美元 (Chinese only)

俄烏緊張局勢不斷升級,美國白宮更預計,俄羅斯有很大機會會對烏克蘭出兵,避險情緒持續高漲下,資金湧入黃金避險,金價更一度重上1900美元關。雖然聯儲局緊縮政策如箭在弦,但預期高通脹及地緣政治將會抵銷前者的影響,黃金仍能繼續發揮避險作用。

踏入2022年,地緣政治成為市場關注話題,除中美博弈外,俄烏局勢亦反映俄羅斯與北約陣營的關係已陷入僵局,美方早前更宣布加派3000名美軍進駐波蘭,兩國戰火一觸即發,為原來已相當緊張的市場情緒火上加油,令股債匯掀起波動。高估值的科技股再次成為資金拋售對象,並湧向價值型股份及黃金等資產避險。

一月份黃金ETF錄得淨流入27億美元

通脹持續高企,資金早於一月份開始流入黃金避險。據世界黃金協會最新的數據顯示,今年一月份全球黃金ETF錄得27億美元的淨流入,達到46.3噸,為2021年5月以來最高,主要受北美及歐洲基金持倉增加所帶動。世界黃金協會在1月19日發布的2022年黃金市場展望,指去年和今年的黃金走勢相類似,主要是好淡的基本因素並存,儘管加息會對金價造成負面影響,根據過去歷史,加息的負面影響有限,反而高通脹和股市調整或對黃金的避險需求增加,黃金消費和央行增加黃金儲備為金價提供長期支持。

內文特別提到美國過去的加息週期中,聯儲局的實際行動,往往未有如言論般鷹派。而且黃金通常在聯儲局緊縮周期的第一次加息後表現較好,以及金價在高通脹時期往往表現強勁。世界黃金協會在1月28日的另一份報告中指,去年黃金需求量增長10%至4021噸,當中第四季全球黃金需求同比大幅增加接近50%,數據為近十季度以來最高水平,亦帶動金價於第四季度表現強勁。

俄烏衝突令供應鏈瓶頸持續惡化

俄羅斯為全球第三大產油國,更是半導體原材料出口大國之一,市場憂慮若俄國下令入侵烏克蘭,會對原油、晶片原材料及國際糧食的供應中斷,加上全球經濟正在復甦,對相關物品的需求持續上升,在供不應求的情況下,令供應鏈瓶頸持續惡化。美國各地又出現嚴寒天氣,油價今年以來持續上揚,布蘭特期油更曾見100美元,油價持續高企勢必令通脹進一步惡化,黃金一向作為傳統的抗通脹工具,油價急升對金價而言實屬強而有力的利好因素。

總括而言,在政治局勢緊張及高通脹下,加密貨幣及高估值股份等風險資產持續遭拋售,整體金價走勢正處於易升難跌的格局,技術上金價又已突破前浪頂1882美元,金價應有力企穩1900美元上方水平。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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