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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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  • 通脹及俄債務違約危機成金價次季主要驅動力 (Chinese only)

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通脹及俄債務違約危機成金價次季主要驅動力 (Chinese only)

紐約期金於三月初高見2078.8美元有所下滑,但今年首季則一洗去年頽風,累計進帳6.6%,去年全年則累跌1.7%。回顧第一季表現,雖然聯儲局加息已成定局,年內甚至需要多次加息,但俄烏緊張局勢下金價仍能反覆向上,全球黃金ETF淨流入金額高達166億美元,遠高於去年的淨流出金額91億美元。展望第二季,鑑於俄羅斯陷入債務違約危機,加上通脹憂慮未除,預期金價仍有力挑戰高位。

首季全球黃金ETF流入近170億美元

雖然三月份美元因聯儲局加息而走強,環球股市亦顯著反彈,但市場憂慮通脹升溫及俄烏衝突等,資金繼續流入黃金避險。據世界黃金協會最新發布的數據顯示,三月份全球黃金ETF錄得淨流入187.3噸,折合約118億美元,相當於資產管理規模增加5.3%,為2016年2月以來最大。今年首季,全球黃金ETF流入金額達166億美元,大幅高於去年的淨流出金額91億美元。

美國孳息率曲線作為衡量美國未來經濟表現的其中一個重要指標,隨著美國兩年期國債孳息上升並一度超越十年期孳息,孳息曲線出現「倒掛」,被市場理解為經濟可能即將步入衰退,也是金價的看漲信號。美國於三月份開始踏入加息周期,但卻已經出現孳息倒掛現象,有市場人士解釋說,孳息率曲線倒掛是由於聯儲局過去兩年的買債計劃導致美國10年期國債孳息率被低估,當央行開始減少買債時,10年期國債孳息率將上升,使曲線變陡。當聯儲局開始縮表時,這也可能在短期內給金價帶來壓力。

俄或中斷歐洲天然氣供應

孳息率曲線倒掛,也可能是由於聯儲局積極的加息計劃使短債孳息上升,以及投資者憂慮聯儲局能否在不損害經濟增長的情況下透過收緊貨幣政策以抑制通脹,並預計 2023 年及以後的加息步伐溫和。值得留意的是,俄羅斯官方宣布要以盧布作為天然氣及其大宗商品出口的結算貨幣,但已被歐洲多國斷然拒絕,因此相信俄羅斯有可能隨時向西方國家暫停供應天然氣或其他原材料,大宗商品價格處於易升難跌的格局。通脹中期內仍將保持高位,無疑為金價帶來良好支撐。

雖然俄烏緊張局勢略有緩和,但西方國家在制裁俄羅斯下所產生的連鎖反應亦引起市場關注。美國財政部於上周宣布,禁止俄羅斯央行動用其存放在美國金融體系的資金,償還超過6億美元的債務,令俄羅斯主權債務違約風險上升。參考過往歷史經驗,俄羅斯曾於1998年發生主權違約,繼而波及全球經濟。隨著俄國大量外匯儲備遭凍結,可能出現的一連串違約會對歐洲金融市場帶來極大的衝擊。總括而言,由於通脹憂慮於短期內難以解除,加上俄羅斯同時陷入債務違約危機,預期兩大因素將繼續成為金價的主要驅動力。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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