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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
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  • 加息降溫及地緣局勢支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

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加息降溫及地緣局勢支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

美國最新消費物價指數 (CPI)回落反映通脹稍為降溫,隨著投資者對經濟衰退的憂慮有增無減,資源需求持續放緩,加大油價的下行壓力,通脹見頂的機會明顯增加。另外,美國八月份紐約聯儲製造業指數急插至負 31.31,更進一步加深市場對經濟的憂慮,美國聯儲局有望減慢加息步伐,加上中國對黃金ETF的持倉有所增長,地緣政治關係仍然緊張,有助支持金價短期表現。

隨著商品價格顯著回落,美國上月通脹較六月份的9.1%回落0.6個百分點至8.5%2。雖然美國服務業通脹仍然高企,但考慮到美國及中國的經濟數據表現疲弱,大宗商品價格繼續回落,此應可部分抵銷服務業成本上升帶來的影響。事實上,美國八月份紐約聯儲製造業指數跌幅創2001年有統計以來第二大,僅次於2020年疫情高峰,由7月的11.1,急跌至8月的負31.3,並遠遜預期1

油價曾最多跌逾半成

中國日前公布的七月份經濟數據同樣強差人意,工業生產指數按年升3.8%,遜預期的4.6%3;零售銷售按年僅漲2.7%,遠差過預期的5%,更低於前月的3.1%3。中國作為最大的金屬及原油消費國,數據出台後拖累商品價格下滑,紐約期油及布蘭特期油於本周一(15日)曾最多跌逾半成,倫敦期銅亦一度最多跌超過2%4。可以預期的是,全球兩大經濟體增速放緩下,商品需求將不如以往般強勁,意味資源價格高企的壓力正逐漸緩解。通脹已見頂的機會甚為增加,繼而支撐聯儲局可能會放緩加息步伐的看法。

值得留意的是,據世界黃金協會上周二(9日)發表的報告指,七月份中國市場的黃金需求強勁,中國黃金ETF的持倉增加9公噸至66公噸,創2020年4月以來最大的月度增長。此外,中國六月份共進口黃金107公噸,較前月大幅上升81公噸,創五個月以來新高,亦遠高於疫情前的水平,主要是受解封後黃金需求迎來爆發所帶動。該報告又指,若中國經濟能繼續保持增長、疫情持續受控及收入提升,預期黃金需求將得到提振5

地緣政治緊張因素至今仍未消除,無論是已持續逾半年的俄烏衝突,以及台海局勢因有美國官員訪台而加劇,中國解放軍更揚言,會繼續在台灣周邊空域進行軍演,外界憂慮,中國軍演有可能會成為新常態。雖然地緣政治對金融市場的影響相對短暫,現階段應不會對金價帶來重大利好,但衝突風險始終未完全降溫,相信能有力支撐金價表現。

 

資料來源:

  1. 紐約聯儲局,2022815
  2. 美國勞工統計局,2022810
  3. 國家統計局,2022815
  4. 彭博,2022817
  5. 世界黃金協會202289

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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