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  • 加息降溫及地緣局勢支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

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加息降溫及地緣局勢支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

美國最新消費物價指數 (CPI)回落反映通脹稍為降溫,隨著投資者對經濟衰退的憂慮有增無減,資源需求持續放緩,加大油價的下行壓力,通脹見頂的機會明顯增加。另外,美國八月份紐約聯儲製造業指數急插至負 31.31,更進一步加深市場對經濟的憂慮,美國聯儲局有望減慢加息步伐,加上中國對黃金ETF的持倉有所增長,地緣政治關係仍然緊張,有助支持金價短期表現。

隨著商品價格顯著回落,美國上月通脹較六月份的9.1%回落0.6個百分點至8.5%2。雖然美國服務業通脹仍然高企,但考慮到美國及中國的經濟數據表現疲弱,大宗商品價格繼續回落,此應可部分抵銷服務業成本上升帶來的影響。事實上,美國八月份紐約聯儲製造業指數跌幅創2001年有統計以來第二大,僅次於2020年疫情高峰,由7月的11.1,急跌至8月的負31.3,並遠遜預期1

油價曾最多跌逾半成

中國日前公布的七月份經濟數據同樣強差人意,工業生產指數按年升3.8%,遜預期的4.6%3;零售銷售按年僅漲2.7%,遠差過預期的5%,更低於前月的3.1%3。中國作為最大的金屬及原油消費國,數據出台後拖累商品價格下滑,紐約期油及布蘭特期油於本周一(15日)曾最多跌逾半成,倫敦期銅亦一度最多跌超過2%4。可以預期的是,全球兩大經濟體增速放緩下,商品需求將不如以往般強勁,意味資源價格高企的壓力正逐漸緩解。通脹已見頂的機會甚為增加,繼而支撐聯儲局可能會放緩加息步伐的看法。

值得留意的是,據世界黃金協會上周二(9日)發表的報告指,七月份中國市場的黃金需求強勁,中國黃金ETF的持倉增加9公噸至66公噸,創2020年4月以來最大的月度增長。此外,中國六月份共進口黃金107公噸,較前月大幅上升81公噸,創五個月以來新高,亦遠高於疫情前的水平,主要是受解封後黃金需求迎來爆發所帶動。該報告又指,若中國經濟能繼續保持增長、疫情持續受控及收入提升,預期黃金需求將得到提振5

地緣政治緊張因素至今仍未消除,無論是已持續逾半年的俄烏衝突,以及台海局勢因有美國官員訪台而加劇,中國解放軍更揚言,會繼續在台灣周邊空域進行軍演,外界憂慮,中國軍演有可能會成為新常態。雖然地緣政治對金融市場的影響相對短暫,現階段應不會對金價帶來重大利好,但衝突風險始終未完全降溫,相信能有力支撐金價表現。

 

資料來源:

  1. 紐約聯儲局,2022815
  2. 美國勞工統計局,2022810
  3. 國家統計局,2022815
  4. 彭博,2022817
  5. 世界黃金協會202289

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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