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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
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  • 避險需求仍高漲支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

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避險需求仍高漲支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

環球央行為遏制通脹加快加息步伐,美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾上周更表示,會一直加息直至通脹回落。雖然利率上調不利黃金價值,但通脹持續高企、地緣政治風險、環球股市波動等利淡因素仍然未消除,避險需求仍然高漲,全球黃金ETF更已連續四個月錄得淨流入,反映黃金仍能繼續擔當避險角色,金價表現不宜看淡。

據世界黃金協會的最新報告顯示,今年四月份,全球黃金ETF持倉增加42.8噸,並已連續四個月錄得淨流入。今年首四個月,黃金ETF持倉則增加311.6噸,總持倉量為3868.6噸。有分析指出,股市及債市持續陷入震盪,黃金成為表現最好的資產之一,亦進一步彰顯黃金的保值功能。隨著市場對通脹的憂慮仍揮之不去,尤其是東歐戰火仍未平息下,黃金的避險需求將持續增加。

西方多國通脹創逾30年高

原油市場供需失衡導致油價居高不下,西方多國的四月份通脹數據均顯著上揚,美國消費物價指數(CPI)錄得8.3%,加拿大6.8%,歐元區及英國則分別為7.4%及9%,所有數據均創超過30年新高。數據公布後,聯儲局主席鮑威爾表明,將毫不猶豫地繼續加息,並稱有決心令通脹回落。英倫銀行則表示,需要進一步加息應對物價急漲的風險。事實上,英央行已連續四次加息至1厘,為2009年2月以來最高水平。同時,歐洲央行暗示,最快於今年七月起開始上調利率。

眼下緊縮政策將以有史以來最快的速度席捲環球金融市場,對經濟增長構成不利影響。再者,通脹令原材料成本急劇上升,削弱企業盈利表現,美國傳統零售股沃爾瑪及Target的首季盈利雙雙遠遜市場預期。除企業層面外,通脹更會進一步減低消費意慾,消費向來作為西方國家經濟的重要支柱,意味滯脹風險正明顯升溫,為金價表現帶來支撐。

俄烏局勢限制金價跌幅

地緣政局方面,烏克蘭較早時表示,只要俄羅斯仍繼續佔領烏克蘭國土,便不會與對方達成停戰協議,而後者更加強轟炸烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區,又同時向南部城市敖德薩發動攻擊,代表地緣政治風險仍然未消除,繼續對全球供應鏈造成衝擊。另外,俄烏戰火亦進一步加劇西方陣營的反俄情緒,芬蘭及瑞典宣布加入北約,俄羅斯隨即宣布停止向芬蘭出口天然氣,預期地緣政治風險升溫下將在一定程度上限制金價的跌幅。

就金價走勢而言,紐約期金於上周初曾失守1800美元,較今年三月創下的逾一年半高位2070美元調整超過一成四,相信已大致消化不少利淡因素。即使聯儲局加快加息步伐,但扣除通脹後實質利率仍然處於負數,黃金仍具有吸引力。地緣政治、股市波動等因素將會提振投資者對黃金的避險需求,資金或有可能趁金價低迷而流入黃金避險。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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