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  • 避險需求仍高漲支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

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避險需求仍高漲支撐金價表現 (Chinese only)

環球央行為遏制通脹加快加息步伐,美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾上周更表示,會一直加息直至通脹回落。雖然利率上調不利黃金價值,但通脹持續高企、地緣政治風險、環球股市波動等利淡因素仍然未消除,避險需求仍然高漲,全球黃金ETF更已連續四個月錄得淨流入,反映黃金仍能繼續擔當避險角色,金價表現不宜看淡。

據世界黃金協會的最新報告顯示,今年四月份,全球黃金ETF持倉增加42.8噸,並已連續四個月錄得淨流入。今年首四個月,黃金ETF持倉則增加311.6噸,總持倉量為3868.6噸。有分析指出,股市及債市持續陷入震盪,黃金成為表現最好的資產之一,亦進一步彰顯黃金的保值功能。隨著市場對通脹的憂慮仍揮之不去,尤其是東歐戰火仍未平息下,黃金的避險需求將持續增加。

西方多國通脹創逾30年高

原油市場供需失衡導致油價居高不下,西方多國的四月份通脹數據均顯著上揚,美國消費物價指數(CPI)錄得8.3%,加拿大6.8%,歐元區及英國則分別為7.4%及9%,所有數據均創超過30年新高。數據公布後,聯儲局主席鮑威爾表明,將毫不猶豫地繼續加息,並稱有決心令通脹回落。英倫銀行則表示,需要進一步加息應對物價急漲的風險。事實上,英央行已連續四次加息至1厘,為2009年2月以來最高水平。同時,歐洲央行暗示,最快於今年七月起開始上調利率。

眼下緊縮政策將以有史以來最快的速度席捲環球金融市場,對經濟增長構成不利影響。再者,通脹令原材料成本急劇上升,削弱企業盈利表現,美國傳統零售股沃爾瑪及Target的首季盈利雙雙遠遜市場預期。除企業層面外,通脹更會進一步減低消費意慾,消費向來作為西方國家經濟的重要支柱,意味滯脹風險正明顯升溫,為金價表現帶來支撐。

俄烏局勢限制金價跌幅

地緣政局方面,烏克蘭較早時表示,只要俄羅斯仍繼續佔領烏克蘭國土,便不會與對方達成停戰協議,而後者更加強轟炸烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區,又同時向南部城市敖德薩發動攻擊,代表地緣政治風險仍然未消除,繼續對全球供應鏈造成衝擊。另外,俄烏戰火亦進一步加劇西方陣營的反俄情緒,芬蘭及瑞典宣布加入北約,俄羅斯隨即宣布停止向芬蘭出口天然氣,預期地緣政治風險升溫下將在一定程度上限制金價的跌幅。

就金價走勢而言,紐約期金於上周初曾失守1800美元,較今年三月創下的逾一年半高位2070美元調整超過一成四,相信已大致消化不少利淡因素。即使聯儲局加快加息步伐,但扣除通脹後實質利率仍然處於負數,黃金仍具有吸引力。地緣政治、股市波動等因素將會提振投資者對黃金的避險需求,資金或有可能趁金價低迷而流入黃金避險。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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