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  • 【信報】黃金金價續受不明朗因素支持 (Chinese only)

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【信報】黃金金價續受不明朗因素支持 (Chinese only)

新冠肺炎今年首季在全球擴散,導致全球股市暴跌,美元需求亦因其國際儲備及結算貨幣特殊地位而急增,即使有傳統避險功能的黃金亦一度成為套現工具,令現貨金價在3月份的6個交易日內,由最高每盎斯1703美元急插至1451美元,跌幅達到14.8%。不過,其後逐步收復失地,並於4月14日升至1747.85美元,其後維持在1660美元以上整固。

首季投資需求急增

為免新冠肺炎在國內擴散,各國採取一系列包括封城等的限制措施,令到經濟活動煞停,致黃金的消費需求顯著下降。據世界黃金協會指出,黃金在中國的珠寶首飾需求方面大幅減少了65%,為有紀錄以來最大跌幅,全球首季在這方面需求亦按年大跌39%至325.8噸紀錄新低。

然而,全球經濟受到嚴重打擊,疫情仍未受控,黃金的投資需求大增。黃金ETF在今年首季需求急增298噸至3185噸歷史高位,金條及金幣需求則按年減少6%至241.6噸,當中金條需求減少19%至150.4噸,但金幣需求則增加36%至76.9噸。另一方面,環球央行亦在首季淨購買了145噸黃金,按年下跌8%,整體上令首季黃金需求按年微升1%至1083.8噸。

上半年經濟勢收縮

目前歐美國家仍然深陷疫情困境,即使開始逐步復工,今年首兩季GDP大幅收縮已成定局。美國首季GDP初值按年收縮4.8%,最近公布的4月份失業率升至14.7%,非農業職位減少2050萬個。阿特蘭大聯邦聯備銀行預測,第二季GDP將會大幅收縮34.9%;歐盟統計局則預測今年歐羅區GDP將會收縮7.7%;日本央行預期日本2020年財政年度GDP收縮3%至5%,中國首季GDP按年亦大幅收縮6.8%,且暫時不制訂增長目標。

然而,這些主要經濟體多預測明年將會恢復增長,此外亦預期,經過首兩季經濟收縮後,全球經濟在第三季回穩,故不排除金價在上半年突破4月份高位1747.85美元,挑戰1845元後,才展開調整浪,但若美、中第二階段貿易談判進展不理想,在加上美國11月總統大選結果的不確定性,金價強勢有機會延續至今年底才結束。

 

刊登於2020年5月12日信報惠理基金專欄。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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