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  • 不確定性未除繼續支持金價表現 (Chinese only)

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不確定性未除繼續支持金價表現 (Chinese only)

美國三月份通脹再創超過40年新高,按年漲幅加快至8.5%,市場憂慮聯儲局會採取更激進的加息,甚至加快縮表應對通脹。縱使有個別分析認為,通脹已經出現見頂跡象,但中國疫情反覆及俄烏戰火未止只會繼續對供應鏈造成衝擊,意味通脹難以降溫,種種因素仍有利金價表現向好。

市場憂慮通脹升溫及俄烏衝突等,資金繼續流入黃金避險,紐約期金今年首季扭轉去年弱勢,累計進帳6.6%,去年全年則蒸發1.7%。另外,據世界黃金協會最新發布的數據顯示,三月份全球黃金ETF錄得淨流入187.3噸,折合約118億美元,相當於資產管理規模增加5.3%,為2016年2月以來最大。今年首季,全球黃金ETF流入金額達166億美元,大幅高於去年的淨流出金額91億美元。

俄烏談判陷僵局提振商品價格

隨著西方國家的通脹持續居高不下,市場預期加息步伐將會愈趨進取,聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德上周四(7日)更表明,美國年內需加息3厘至3.25厘。傳統上,緊縮環境雖不利金價表現,但鑑於俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突未有平息跡象,俄羅斯總統普京更明言,兩國的和平談判陷入僵局,並指出對烏克蘭的「特別軍事行動」正在按計劃進行,反映俄國仍沒有停火的意願。烏克蘭作為「歐洲糧倉」,俄羅斯又同時是主要的原材料出口國,戰火綿延亦代表大宗商品價格仍有可能繼續飆升。

值得留意的是,俄羅斯早前宣布將以盧布作為天然氣及其大宗商品出口的結算貨幣,但歐洲多國拒絕配合,俄羅斯因此有可能隨時向西方國家暫停供應天然氣或其他原材料,供不應求的情況預期將進一步加劇下,不利通脹回落。另外,中國疫情反彈,不少新增確診個案更集中在上海、深圳等一線城市,在清零政策下,上海、昆山等工業重鎮先後封城,不少大型企業被迫停產,料短期內為全球供應鏈造成衝擊,疊加俄烏衝突,通脹持續高企的可能性不低,從而繼續支撐金價表現。

總括而言,雖然聯儲局於三月份已開始展開加息週期,但實質利率仍然處於負值,成為支撐金價的重要因素。加上市場上仍充斥著不少不確定性,例如東歐戰事、中國疫情反覆、供應鏈瓶頸等,預期黃金仍然會成為資金的主要避險對象。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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