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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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不確定性未除繼續支持金價表現 (Chinese only)

美國三月份通脹再創超過40年新高,按年漲幅加快至8.5%,市場憂慮聯儲局會採取更激進的加息,甚至加快縮表應對通脹。縱使有個別分析認為,通脹已經出現見頂跡象,但中國疫情反覆及俄烏戰火未止只會繼續對供應鏈造成衝擊,意味通脹難以降溫,種種因素仍有利金價表現向好。

市場憂慮通脹升溫及俄烏衝突等,資金繼續流入黃金避險,紐約期金今年首季扭轉去年弱勢,累計進帳6.6%,去年全年則蒸發1.7%。另外,據世界黃金協會最新發布的數據顯示,三月份全球黃金ETF錄得淨流入187.3噸,折合約118億美元,相當於資產管理規模增加5.3%,為2016年2月以來最大。今年首季,全球黃金ETF流入金額達166億美元,大幅高於去年的淨流出金額91億美元。

俄烏談判陷僵局提振商品價格

隨著西方國家的通脹持續居高不下,市場預期加息步伐將會愈趨進取,聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德上周四(7日)更表明,美國年內需加息3厘至3.25厘。傳統上,緊縮環境雖不利金價表現,但鑑於俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突未有平息跡象,俄羅斯總統普京更明言,兩國的和平談判陷入僵局,並指出對烏克蘭的「特別軍事行動」正在按計劃進行,反映俄國仍沒有停火的意願。烏克蘭作為「歐洲糧倉」,俄羅斯又同時是主要的原材料出口國,戰火綿延亦代表大宗商品價格仍有可能繼續飆升。

值得留意的是,俄羅斯早前宣布將以盧布作為天然氣及其大宗商品出口的結算貨幣,但歐洲多國拒絕配合,俄羅斯因此有可能隨時向西方國家暫停供應天然氣或其他原材料,供不應求的情況預期將進一步加劇下,不利通脹回落。另外,中國疫情反彈,不少新增確診個案更集中在上海、深圳等一線城市,在清零政策下,上海、昆山等工業重鎮先後封城,不少大型企業被迫停產,料短期內為全球供應鏈造成衝擊,疊加俄烏衝突,通脹持續高企的可能性不低,從而繼續支撐金價表現。

總括而言,雖然聯儲局於三月份已開始展開加息週期,但實質利率仍然處於負值,成為支撐金價的重要因素。加上市場上仍充斥著不少不確定性,例如東歐戰事、中國疫情反覆、供應鏈瓶頸等,預期黃金仍然會成為資金的主要避險對象。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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