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供應鏈瓶頸惡化為金價帶來支持 (Chinese only)

俄烏衝突已持續逾一個月,隨著市場已大致消化兩國戰火再進一步惡化的可能性,金價自三月初高見2078美元後持續向下。雖然金價正進入調整,但隨著西方國家對俄實施的一系列制裁措施及中國疫情反彈,令全球供應鏈陷入危機,意味滯脹風險升溫,黃金仍有望成為資金的避險對象。

俄烏兩國為全球石油、糧食及金屬資源的主要出口,面對地緣政治緊張及西方國家的制裁下,國際期油、鋁、小麥等商品於今月初衝高至多年高位。今年以來,布蘭特期油最多曾漲近79%,高見139.13美元;倫敦三個月期鋁則曾最多飆45%,高見4073.5美元;芝加哥小麥期貨最多急漲77%,高見1363.5美元。

大宗商品價格上揚令消費者物價指數(CPI)漲幅進一步擴大,美國二月份通脹按年升幅飆至7.9%,再創40年新高,市場預期三月份通脹有機會突破8%。歐盟統計局於今月初公布,二月份CPI則按年急升5.8%。商品市場持續供求失衡,加上美國自去年起掀起「大離職潮」,推動工資水平上漲,令通脹更難受控。

上海為遏制疫情而實施全市封鎖,短期內應會減少對能源的需求,緩和油價上漲壓力,但上海為電子及晶片代工重鎮,恐對全球半導體供應鏈造成衝擊。另外,氖氣是處理晶片所需要的特殊氣體,鈀金則為晶片製造的其中一種重要原材料,全球逾七成的氖氣主要由烏克蘭生產,而俄羅斯則提供全球超過三成半的鈀金,前者供應正受戰火所影響,後者則可能因俄羅斯為報復西方國家而暫停其供應,導致晶片荒情況惡化,最終只會加劇通脹。

通脹風險仍未解除下,而黃金一向被市場視為對抗通脹的投資工具,上述因素無疑為金價帶來支撐。影響黃金需求仍有以下因素,隨著俄羅斯遭踢出國際金融體系,盧布大幅度貶值,當地民眾紛紛投資黃金相關產品,俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)早前表示,俄羅斯投資者對黃金和鈀金的需求明顯急增。同時,俄羅斯財政部為擺脫對美元的依賴,正計劃增持更多黃金。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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