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  • 俄烏政局緊張 金價將保持強勢 (Chinese only)

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俄烏政局緊張 金價將保持強勢 (Chinese only)

俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭因未能速戰速決而陷入苦戰,此前多次談判亦毫無進展,加上以美國為首的西方和亞洲多個國家,將會進一步大力制裁俄羅斯,令局勢持續失控。受事件惡化影響,俄烏兩國主要出口的大宗商品價格全面暴升。另外,俄烏政治局勢緊張,帶動避險資金流入金市避險,推動金價升破2000美元大關。

根據3月8日路透社報道,世界黃金協會發布最新的數據顯示,2月全球黃金ETF繼續錄得淨流入,數量達35.3噸,折合約21億美元。美國最大的黃金交易所基金SPDR ETF,其持倉量亦持續增加,該公司在3月8號公佈,持倉量增加8.42噸至1062.7噸,創去年3月以來新高。

不確定性增加資金湧入黃金避險

地緣政治風險增加,拖累環球股市出現恐慌性拋售,俄羅斯及歐洲多國貨幣相繼大幅貶值,俄羅斯的主權債務評級被下調至接近垃圾級別,俄羅斯出現主權債務違約的機會大增,更不排除當地銀行會陸續出現倒閉潮。眾多不確定性洶湧而出,吸引大量資金流入黃金避險,相信短期內這趨勢會延續一段時間。

商品價格走勢方面,隨著美國政府最終實施禁止進口俄羅斯原油,市場憂慮原油市場供不應求的情況將更加嚴峻,紐約期油一度升至130美元,年初至今最多曾急漲逾70%。與此同時俄羅斯警告,若西方國家禁止進口俄羅斯石油,則可能會關閉通往德國的主要天然氣管道。俄烏地緣政治局勢不明朗令原油及商品價格上漲,並預期於高水平橫行。一旦有更多國家對俄羅斯實施原油出口的制裁,油價高企料將持續,並對通脹構成壓力。

通脹嚴重升溫支持金價表現

除了期油之外,俄烏天然氣、農產品及基本金屬的出口恐遇阻滯,相關價格升勢亦十分凌厲。大宗商品價格全面暴升,可以肯定的是,美國以至環球通脹勢必進一步嚴重升溫。在通脹持續升溫下,相信可以為金價提供一個強而有力的長期支撐點,後市有力再向上挑戰。

另一方面,聯儲局主席鮑威爾上星期出席參眾兩院聽證會時表示,將會在3月16日的議息會議加息0.25%,預計無法有效遏止通脹升勢。幾乎肯定未來一兩年間,美國仍會出現負實質利率和通脹持續高企,該情況無疑會吸引各國央行及大型金融機構持續買入黃金抗通脹。在局勢惡化及通脹高企的大環境下,因此相信金價將繼續保持升勢。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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