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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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  • 俄烏衝突推高通脹,金價調整空間有限 (Chinese only)

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俄烏衝突推高通脹,金價調整空間有限 (Chinese only)

俄羅斯持續攻擊烏克蘭各大城市,歐美亦先後宣布對前者實施一連串制裁措施,資金連日來湧入黃金避險,於上月底更一度高見1976美元。從歷年的國際戰事來看,雖然軍事衝突往往只會對金價產生短期的利好作用,但隨著俄國多間銀行遭踢出環球銀行金融電訊協會(SWIFT)支付系統,勢必影響到俄國的石油及其他原材料的出口,令全球供應鏈進一步受到衝擊,通脹有極大機會持續升溫,黃金仍有望成為避險對象。

回顧過去戰爭行情,因為金價已累積一定升幅,故戰爭一旦爆發,金價或出現先升後調整。2月24日金價瞬間衝破1900美元大關,最高升至1976美元,其後俄羅斯正式向烏克蘭開戰,金價一度出現調整,徘徊在1900美元水平。據英國「每日郵報」的報導指出,俄軍攻打烏克蘭的進度遠較預期慢,平均每日的軍費支出高達150億英鎊,意味兩國衝突難以持續下去。一旦風險事件不再惡化,預期金價將會展開調整,但通脹失控,交易員及投資者很大機會趁金價回調時大舉趁低吸納,作長線持有。

歐美制裁打壓俄國原油出口

俄羅斯作為全球最主要的液化天然氣(LNG)及石油出口國之一,隨著西方國家將部份俄羅斯銀行從SWIFT剔除,為減低對供應鏈的衝擊,美國此前明言會嘗試豁免俄國的原油貿易,但由於不少外國企業因擔心受到懲罰而拒絕與俄國相關的商品進行交易,有分析指,俄國的能源出口於短期內有很大機會會受阻。同時,俄羅斯作為全球小麥出口大國,除能源外,俄烏衝突恐令基本金屬及農產品供應出現中斷,帶動相關價格全面上升,勢必令通脹進一步惡化。

如無意外,聯儲局在3月份開展加息週期,即使目前美國通脹已處於半失控狀態,但由於憂慮會對經濟造成重大影響,市場料儲局不會大幅加息,近日更有儲局官員借俄烏局勢發表鴿派言論,表明無需要7月前累計加息1厘,估計金價不會出現大幅度的調整。

美債息回落支持金價表現

另一方面,近期美匯指數表現乏力,估計是有資金湧入美國債券市場避險,在美債價格攀升下,美國10年期債息持續由高位回落,從而令美匯受壓繼而有利金價上升,預料短期資金繼續湧入債市的局面不會改變。因此,債息受壓,將會為金價帶來支持。

總括而言,東歐武裝衝突導致全球供應鏈受到衝擊,而聯儲局的貨幣緊縮政策步伐又遠遠落後於通脹,加上環球股市持續出現不同程度的調整,預期黃金仍能發揮避險作用,縱使金價出現先升後回走勢,但在通脹水平仍未受到控制下,料資金趁低流入,相信金價仍能守穩在上升通道當中。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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