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債息急升衝擊輕微,黃金繼續發揮避險作用 (Chinese only)

美國聯儲局下周將舉行今年首次議息會議,隨著通脹持續高企,聯儲局取向亦更鷹派,市場對加息的預期再次升溫,刺激美國債息急升。然而,債息與金價並非必然存負相關性,在避險情緒升溫下,加上金價已大致消化加息因素,資金持續泊入黃金及相關ETF產品,金價有望能維持升勢。

黃金與債息並不一定呈相反方向

美國通脹水平持續高企,上月消費物價指數(CPI)按年飆升7%創40年新高。雖然高通脹或正為經濟帶來衰退壓力,但聯儲局主席鮑威爾早前指出,高通脹為就業市場帶來威脅,更表示將在3月底結束買債,加息次數可能較目前計劃為多。美國加息如箭在弦,美十年債債息更衝高至1.89厘,創近兩年新高,但並沒有對金價造成太大影響,據歷史數據顯示,黃金與債息的走勢並非必然呈相反方向。

在2003年6月至2007年6月的債息上升周期,債息由3.1厘上升至5.3厘,同期金價亦由每安士356美元升至647美元,升幅逾80%。無獨有偶,自2020年3月以來的過去一年,美國10年期國債息率由0.67厘升至近期最高1.74厘,金價亦上升了8.3%。

另外,回顧自1986年以來,聯儲局的五次加息週期當中,金價表現並未因受到拖累,反而錄得正回報,尤其是上一次的加息週期及縮表期間,即2017年11月至2019年8月,金價在這段期間仍錄得約20%的升幅。正如筆者在前文所說,因金融市場已經完全消化聯儲局將會收緊貨幣政策的訊息,所以一旦聯儲局落實執行相關政策時,金價反而開始回升。

中美博弈未歇地緣政治將更複雜

地緣政治日趨緊張亦有望帶動資金流入黃金避險,如哈薩克政府讓俄羅斯軍隊入境平亂;俄羅斯早前與北約就烏克蘭問題進行的多次磋商無果而終,前者更暗示會在古巴及委內瑞拉駐軍,令美俄緊張關係持續加劇。亞洲方面,北韓近期更多次進行高超音速導彈試射,美國其後立即宣布,制裁多名北韓及俄羅斯公民,令兩韓局勢再起波瀾。中美博弈仍然是國際局勢下的聚焦點,而目前沒有任何跡象兩國關係會有所緩和,意味今年的地緣政局會較去年更加複雜。

虛幣市場疲弱刺激資金回流金市

據世界黃金協會統計顯示,過去十年全球央行合共增持黃金儲備超過4500噸,數量達到3.6萬噸,黃金總儲備量增加至1990年以來最高水平。央行增加黃金儲備,一方面是抗通脹,第二方面則是因應美元強勢下,令這些央行的本國貨幣貶值,從而轉為增加黃金儲備。另外,比特幣在去年11月創下69020美元的歷史高位後持續下跌,虛擬貨幣市場氣氛疲弱,資金亦明顯回流至黃金及其相關ETF市場。

總括而言,黃金仍可有效對沖通脹失控或加息引發經濟衰退所帶來的影響,在後市仍存在眾多的不穩因素下,黃金亦繼續扮演避險角色,未來金價有望維持升勢。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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