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利好因素支撐 金價醞釀突破 (Chinese only)

俄烏局勢急速惡化,俄羅斯總統普京宣布,承認烏克蘭東部兩個分離主義地區頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克為「獨立國家」,並下令俄軍對烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區執行「維和任務」,烏克蘭多地遭受攻擊。與此同時,歐美先後宣布一連串制裁俄羅斯的措施,俄羅斯在2月24日當地時間清晨更向烏克蘭發動全面入侵。受避險情緒氣氛帶動,金價以致一眾商品價格均保持強勢。

踏入 2022 年,地緣政治風險不斷升溫,據世界黃金協會早前公布的數據顯示,1月份全球黃金ETF流入量為46噸(約27億美元),為2021年5月以來最高水平1。另外,全球最大的黃金ETF – SPDR Gold shares,其持倉量自去年12月觸及20個月新低後,已上升超過50噸2。路透社上周報導,根據Refinitiv Lipper,截至今年2月23日,流入全球黃金及其他貴金屬ETF的金額約47億美元,去年則流出78億美元3

債價上升利好金價表現

回顧過去戰爭行情,因為金價已累積一定升幅,故戰爭一旦爆發,金價或出現先升後調整。2月24日金價瞬間衝破1,900美元大關,最高升至1,974美元,其後俄羅斯正式向烏克蘭開戰,金價一度出現調整、徘徊在1,900美元水平。礙於目前美國通脹已處於半失控狀態,歐洲通脹又同時持續升溫,估計金價也不會出現大幅度的調整,交易員及投資者很大機會趁金價回調時大舉趁低吸納,作長線持有。

而且俄烏全面進入作戰狀態,西歐相當依賴俄羅斯出口的天然氣及石油,加上俄羅斯為全球小麥出口大國,俄烏衝突恐會令能源、基本金屬及農產品供應出現中斷,帶動相關價格全面上升,勢必令通脹進一步惡化;美國一月份消費物價指數(CPI)為7.5%,創下40年新高4。如無意外,聯儲局在3月份開展加息週期,但美匯指數表現乏力,估計是有資金湧入美國債券市場避險,在美債價格攀升下,美國10年期債息持續由高位回落,從而令美匯受壓繼而有利金價上升,預料短期資金繼續湧入債市的局面不會改變。因此,債息受壓,將會為金價提供強而有力的利好因素。

總括而言,東歐武裝衝突不斷升級,全球供應鏈恐受到衝擊,通脹有極大機會持續升溫,環球股市持續出現不同程度的調整,短期繼續回吐應無可避免,預期資金會繼續流入避險資產包括黃金ETF在內,令避險資產及金價進一步挑戰高位。

資料來源:

  1. 世界黃金協會報告,2022年1月28日
  2. 彭博新聞報導,2022年2月23日
  3. 路透社新聞報導,2022年2月24日
  4. 美國勞工及統計局,2022年2月10日

免責聲明:本文提供之觀點純屬惠理基金管理香港有限公司(「惠理」)觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不可視作倚賴之依據。所有數據是於呈示之日搜集自被認為是可靠的數據源,但惠理不保證數據的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此前瞻性陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等前瞻性陳述有重大落差。本文件並未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。刊發人:惠理基金管理香港有限公司。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

 

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