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  • 滯漲憂慮未除 黃金繼續受資金青睞 (Chinese only)

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滯漲憂慮未除 黃金繼續受資金青睞 (Chinese only)

俄烏局勢陷入僵局,全球經濟衰退風險正明顯升溫,通脹壓力又同時增加,部分央行加快進入加息周期,或可能導致衰退提早出現,持續為金融市場帶來困擾。同時,市場對滯漲的憂慮揮之不去,避險情緒仍然高漲,加上俄羅斯國內的黃金需求持續強勁,對短期金價有著極大支撐作用。

東歐戰事已持續超過一個月,烏克蘭多個城市接連受到俄軍空襲,著名瑞士鑄金商龐博集團(MKS PAMP Group)金屬策略主管謝爾斯(Nicky Shiels)發表最新報告指,俄烏戰爭將使全球地緣政治局勢出現巨大變化,預期俄烏局勢年內難以完全解決,全球經濟衰退的風險正逐步增加,使金價今年的走勢將完全不同於該行早前所估計。另一方面,該報告更認為,各國央行為了應對油價上漲所帶來的通脹壓力而持續加息,恐怕會令經濟衰退更早出現。

俄烏戰事引發西方國家實施一系列制裁,並將俄國踢出國際金融體系,在海外的外匯儲備遭到凍結,導致俄羅斯盧布暴挫。俄國央行其後更出台新措施限制俄國民眾兌換外幣,以及禁止資金外流,促使當地對黃金的需求急升。俄央行於今月中宣布,為滿足國內家庭的黃金需求,央行已暫停從銀行購入黃金,並取消對購買貴金屬所徵收的20%增值稅。事實上,自俄羅斯銀行遭歐美制裁後,當地金融體系面臨崩盤危機,民眾急忙提取存款,將資金泊入貴金屬,導致俄國境內銀行出現擠兌現象,俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)早前表示,俄羅斯投資者對黃金和鈀金的需求明顯急增。

俄央行黃金儲備達2300

除俄國原油因制裁而出口受阻外,西方國家亦對俄國的黃金實施制裁。倫敦作為全球的黃金交易中心,每年貴金屬的交易額超過萬億美元,於今月初宣布禁止俄羅斯新生產的金條進入倫敦市場。另外,美國財政部於上周簽署一項行政命令,禁止與俄羅斯進行黃金交易,並表明七大工業國(G7)及歐盟成員國會繼續打擊俄央行動用其外匯儲備。

俄羅斯自2014年吞併克里米亞後一直囤積黃金,目前持有的黃金儲備大約2300噸,總價值接近1400億美元。隨著全球兩大金融市場先後禁止俄國的黃金交易,即使俄羅斯仍可以在有限的途徑向盟友拋售黃金,例如上海黃金市場及未參與制裁的央行,但由於市場規模及流通量遠不及英美國家,出售的數量恐相當有限。加上,為免觸及西方國家的神經,其盟友或會避免與俄羅斯進行黃金交易,因此俄央行大規模拋售黃金的可能性相當低。

總括而言,因俄烏戰事所引發的滯漲風險未有明顯降溫跡象下,俄羅斯國內的黃金需求持續強勁,俄央行又不太可能在市場上將黃金儲備套現,以上因素均能支持金價表現,預期金市及相關ETF仍會繼續成為資金的避險對象。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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