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  • 滯脹威脅逼近或利好黃金表現(Chinese only)

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滯脹威脅逼近或利好黃金表現(Chinese only)

通脹居高不下令美國的貨幣政策回歸正常化,美元及美債孳息率一路上揚,大大遏制金價表現。然而,隨著歐美陷入滯脹的機率增加,俄烏緊張局勢又持續升溫,風險資產的波幅將較以往來得更大。金價波幅向來較股市低,相信黃金仍能發揮其避險功能,多隻在岸黃金ETF更於第二季獲大型避險基金增持,反映黃金在多元資產策略中仍是相當重要的一部分。

年內料再加息1.25厘

踏入加息周期,美元強勢及孳息上升不利金價表現,但相對其他風險資產,金價今年以來只下跌約9.6%,標普500指數則急挫22.5%1,黃金表現跑贏不少。事實上,聯儲局今年以來已連續五次加息,聯邦基金利率區間達到3至3.25厘的水平。局方在上周的議息會議後更發表鷹派言論,揚言會繼續加息直至通脹回落至2%的目標。據最新的點陣圖預測中值顯示,到 2022 年底聯邦基金利率為 4.4%,而2023 年為 4.6%,意味著 11 月 的議息會議將再次加息 75 個基點,然後在 12 月加息 50 個基點2

隨著利率上揚,借貸成本將同時上升,從而壓抑消費,並增加企業及政府的債務壓力,可見宏觀經濟步入衰退的風險正不斷上升,有望為金價帶來支持。聯儲局此前大幅下調今年經濟增長預測至僅0.2%,遠低於之前預測的1.7%,2023及2024年的經濟增長預測亦分別調低至1.2及1.7%,反映局方已就加息所帶來的經濟衰退作好準備。此外,市場已逐步消化聯儲局加快加息的消息;再者,2023年最終利率目標僅4.6%,明年加息步伐將明顯放慢,有利金價反彈。

全球四分三國家遭削經濟預測

歐洲央行同樣在九月份加息0.75厘,為歷史上首次,行長拉加德亦發表鷹派言論,為打壓通脹未來可能再次實施同樣幅度的加息,並預料明年二月利率水平會達到2.25%。隨著歐美央行正以最激進的加息步伐抗衡通脹,陷入滯脹的機率亦大大提高,世界銀行首席經濟學家Indermit Gill於九月中警告,全球經濟或將出現「普遍性滯脹」,並同時調低全球四分之三國家或地區的經濟預測

雖然不少商品價格已由俄烏衝突初期的高位回落,通脹按年漲幅可能在未來幾個季度回軟,但隨著俄羅斯積極擴大軍隊規模,市場普遍預計兩國的軍事衝突將會進一步升級,更不排除俄國動用核武的可能性,縱使環球市場對商品的需求有所減弱,惟地緣政治持續緊張。此消彼長下,預期商品價格將繼續在高位徘徊,全球可能會面臨更頻繁的周期性通脹壓力,環球市場難逃滯脹的威脅。

值得留意的是,全球最大避險基金集團橋水(Bridgewater),據報於今年第二季大舉增持三隻中國在岸黃金ETF,合共持有2.14億股,截至昨日收市,其市值超過8億元人民幣。事實上,該三隻ETF今年以來平均累漲約3%,滬深300指數則挫逾兩成二1,前者明顯跑贏大市,反映黃金ETF在波動市況下可提供一定的防守力。隨著滯脹風險不斷升溫,投資者不妨考慮配置相關ETF以作對沖。

 

資料來源:

  1. 彭博,2022年9月26日
  2. 美國聯儲局,2022年9月22日
  3. 美國聯儲局,2022年9月21日
  4. 歐洲央行,2022年9月8日
  5. 世界銀行,2022年9月16日
  6. 英國金融時報,2022年9月15日

 

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