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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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環球資金續入金市 (Chinese only)

上周筆者以相關性解釋黃金如何分散傳統資產的風險,事實上近月不少機構投資者亦關注黃金的價值,包括部分養老金、對沖基金和中央銀行均在黃金刷新高時,仍選擇增持黃金。

養老金抗通脹

8月底,美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾宣布大規模修訂政策框架,提到未來對通脹的容忍度將會增加,未來在考慮加息前,須檢討更長的時間,或容許通脹率短期間稍微高於2%。

綜觀不同的機構投資者,養老金是其中較受通脹風險影響的。歐美國家的勞工市場盛行建立各行各業的養老金,負責集合特定行業的打工仔,為他們籌謀未來的退休生活支出的打算,概念類似供款養「長俸」,要滿足定期領取退休金,投資時期非常長線,覆蓋年期是上數十年,承受相當大的通脹風險。而黃金是一種可以儲存價值的實質資產(physical assets),央行印鈔買入債券甚至股票,相反黃金不能印製,蘊藏量有限,突顯珍貴的稀缺性。

最近,美國一個規模約160億美元、名為俄亥俄州警察與消防養老金亦強調要對沖通脹風險,同時分散組合內增長型投資的風險,宣布配置5%資產於黃金。

基金央行買進

除了上回提及股神畢非德買入一家黃金採礦企業的股份,另一位美國的傳奇投資人達里奧(Ray Dalio),其創辦的對沖基金橋水在第二季的披露文件顯示,旗下投資組合增持兩隻由美國資產管理公司管理的黃金ETF,價值共4億美元。橋水在其中一隻產品的持倉亦由首季底的6億美元,一躍成為該ETF的最大持倉的投資者之一,6月底已佔其規模9億美元。這項配置亦成為橋水基金的第二大重倉的投資,僅次於基金長期持有的標普500指數ETF。隨着息口低企,在次季橋水減持美國國債ETF和多家位於加拿大的銀行的股份。

中央銀行亦一直在「金甲蟲」的行列,印度儲備銀行在最近的央行政策展望提到國內通脹預期,印度國內經濟受疫情重擊,加上中印邊境出現衝突,有將國家儲備加添避險資產的需要,於上月宣布增持3.5百分點的黃金至佔央行儲備的一成。

與美元呈相反

全球所有機構投資者的資產規模極之龐大,有人估計若將當中2%分配給黃金,將等於去年黃金投資總量的95倍。雖然黃金已刷新每盎斯2000美元的關口,但專業投資者仍繼而入市,主要因為未來支撐金價的因素仍在。

自金融危機以來,多國央行一直累積其黃金儲備。時至今日,環球央行坐擁近3.5萬噸黃金,儲備較2009年增加5000多噸,約佔地上庫存的17%。

另外,疫情過後,宏觀經濟政策主調仍是傾向寬鬆,美元正開始下行周期,而金價與美元走勢相反,理論上當實際利率下降時,持有黃金的機會成本亦向下,有利金價上揚。

再者,美國大選前後,是地緣政治局勢不明朗之時,投資者套現金融市場資產避險,亦期望停泊於一些可以產生回報的安全資產,大幅拉動黃金的需求。

 本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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