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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
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  • 衰退陰霾未散 金價有望反彈 (Chinese only)

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衰退陰霾未散 金價有望反彈 (Chinese only)

美國6月份通脹按年急升9.1%再創近41年新高,再次令加息預期升溫,美元指數於上周一度衝上20年新高,拖累金價跌至近1700美元關。然而,隨着經濟衰退憂慮持續,油價及食品價格於上月開始下滑,通脹或因此已接近見頂,美國聯儲局的鷹派立場或會逐漸軟化,已由高位回落不少的金價有望重拾升勢。

美國汽油價格於上月創新高,新冠疫情又導致供應鏈中斷,加上某些國家禁止部分糧食出口,以及惡劣天氣與戰爭因素所影響,共同支持糧食價格持續上升,美國6月份消費者物價指數(CPI)按年急增9.1%。然而,全球各地疫情再次升溫,中國近期更出現多宗新增確診個案,令市場憂慮國內經濟增速或會降溫,拖累油價連番下挫,自6月份至上周四(14日)止,紐約期油及布蘭特期油分別下滑16.5%及19.3%,兩者曾分別最多急挫21%及23%。

金屬及糧食價格持續下滑

經濟衰退的擔憂亦令市場對其他商品的需求感到悲觀,金屬價格自6月起亦累積不少跌幅。截至上周四止,倫敦3個月期銅及3個月期鋁分別下滑24.1%及16.2%;3個月期鎳及3個月期鋅更分別急挫31.7%及26.5%。高盛在其最新發表的報告中表示,銅價在最近幾個月的螺旋式下跌,反映市場對經濟前景更加悲觀,歐洲的天然氣危機更進一步加劇衰退擔憂。該行預計,銅價將會進一步走低,未來3個月銅價將跌至每噸6700美元,以上周四收市價7170美元為例,意味銅價還有約6.6%的下跌空間。

與此同時,糧食價格亦出現下滑趨勢,小麥及玉米期貨價格於5月初分別高見1284美元及822美元後持續回落,截至上周四,已分別回調38%及15.4%。事實上,油價一直是推動通脹的主要因素,金屬及糧食價格則是次要因素,儘管俄烏衝突持續,有可能會再次推升商品價格,但在全球經濟增長持續放緩下,預期商品需求將面對較大的下行壓力,將會抵消持續衝突對商品價格的影響。

IMF削美明年增長預測至1%

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)大幅下調美國今明兩年經濟增長預測,今年增幅由上月預測的2.9%降至2.3%,明年增長則削0.7個百分點至1%,主要由於進取的加息步伐致使需求降溫。IMF更同時警告,通脹廣泛上升對美國以至全球經濟造成「系統性風險」。事實上,美國2年期及10年期國債孳息曲線倒掛程度不斷加劇,歷史數據顯示,倒掛現象預示經濟步入衰退的機率逐漸增加,投資者可能因此重新部署黃金及債券。

富國銀行的最新一份報告指,經濟衰退風險上升將提振黃金避險需求,金價在今年底仍有可能達到每盎斯2050美元,意味有17%的潛在上漲空間。總括而言,在加息預期下,金價由3月中創下的逾一年半高位即2070美元後反覆回落,以現水平約1700美元計,回調幅度已達18%。鑑於市場上多項因素反映經濟有惡化跡象,令避險需求升溫。再者,聯儲局的緊縮立場或會變得克制,金價仍有可能借勢反彈。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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