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  • 衰退陰霾未散 金價有望反彈 (Chinese only)

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衰退陰霾未散 金價有望反彈 (Chinese only)

美國6月份通脹按年急升9.1%再創近41年新高,再次令加息預期升溫,美元指數於上周一度衝上20年新高,拖累金價跌至近1700美元關。然而,隨着經濟衰退憂慮持續,油價及食品價格於上月開始下滑,通脹或因此已接近見頂,美國聯儲局的鷹派立場或會逐漸軟化,已由高位回落不少的金價有望重拾升勢。

美國汽油價格於上月創新高,新冠疫情又導致供應鏈中斷,加上某些國家禁止部分糧食出口,以及惡劣天氣與戰爭因素所影響,共同支持糧食價格持續上升,美國6月份消費者物價指數(CPI)按年急增9.1%。然而,全球各地疫情再次升溫,中國近期更出現多宗新增確診個案,令市場憂慮國內經濟增速或會降溫,拖累油價連番下挫,自6月份至上周四(14日)止,紐約期油及布蘭特期油分別下滑16.5%及19.3%,兩者曾分別最多急挫21%及23%。

金屬及糧食價格持續下滑

經濟衰退的擔憂亦令市場對其他商品的需求感到悲觀,金屬價格自6月起亦累積不少跌幅。截至上周四止,倫敦3個月期銅及3個月期鋁分別下滑24.1%及16.2%;3個月期鎳及3個月期鋅更分別急挫31.7%及26.5%。高盛在其最新發表的報告中表示,銅價在最近幾個月的螺旋式下跌,反映市場對經濟前景更加悲觀,歐洲的天然氣危機更進一步加劇衰退擔憂。該行預計,銅價將會進一步走低,未來3個月銅價將跌至每噸6700美元,以上周四收市價7170美元為例,意味銅價還有約6.6%的下跌空間。

與此同時,糧食價格亦出現下滑趨勢,小麥及玉米期貨價格於5月初分別高見1284美元及822美元後持續回落,截至上周四,已分別回調38%及15.4%。事實上,油價一直是推動通脹的主要因素,金屬及糧食價格則是次要因素,儘管俄烏衝突持續,有可能會再次推升商品價格,但在全球經濟增長持續放緩下,預期商品需求將面對較大的下行壓力,將會抵消持續衝突對商品價格的影響。

IMF削美明年增長預測至1%

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)大幅下調美國今明兩年經濟增長預測,今年增幅由上月預測的2.9%降至2.3%,明年增長則削0.7個百分點至1%,主要由於進取的加息步伐致使需求降溫。IMF更同時警告,通脹廣泛上升對美國以至全球經濟造成「系統性風險」。事實上,美國2年期及10年期國債孳息曲線倒掛程度不斷加劇,歷史數據顯示,倒掛現象預示經濟步入衰退的機率逐漸增加,投資者可能因此重新部署黃金及債券。

富國銀行的最新一份報告指,經濟衰退風險上升將提振黃金避險需求,金價在今年底仍有可能達到每盎斯2050美元,意味有17%的潛在上漲空間。總括而言,在加息預期下,金價由3月中創下的逾一年半高位即2070美元後反覆回落,以現水平約1700美元計,回調幅度已達18%。鑑於市場上多項因素反映經濟有惡化跡象,令避險需求升溫。再者,聯儲局的緊縮立場或會變得克制,金價仍有可能借勢反彈。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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