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許喬達: 經濟風險升溫 金價有條件續反彈 (Chinese only)

美國接連公布的多項經濟數據不及預期,衰退風險仍揮之不去,市場預期聯儲局將減慢加息步伐,美元及美債息持續回落。同時,中國最新的經濟數據亦疲弱不振,房地產市場又持續低迷,新冠疫情復燃下,為經濟復甦帶來不少挑戰。隨着全球兩大經濟體的增長動力不如市場樂觀看法,地緣政治局勢再度緊張,資金有重返黃金的跡象。此外,央行不斷增持黃金,預期金價仍有條件繼續展開反彈。

世界黃金協會於上月公布,隨着金價於第二季下跌,黃金季內需求按年下跌8%至948噸,但上半年則按年增長12%至2189噸。黃金ETF於第二季流出39噸,上半年的淨流入總量達234噸,去年同期則淨流出約127噸。聯儲局持續收緊貨幣政策令美元維持強勢,美滙指數於第二季大漲6.5%,此因素顯著削弱黃金需求。然而,眼下多項美國經濟數據表現遜色,預期會促使聯儲局減慢緊縮政策的步伐,美元已見頂的機會不低。

美經濟收縮債息下跌

據美國商務部公布,美國第二季國內生產總值(GDP)按年收縮0.9%,遠遜預期的增長0.4%,並已連續兩個季度錄得跌幅。其他數據亦反映美國經濟活動正進一步減弱,美國7月製造業PMI錄得52.2,為2020年8月以來新低,但勝預期的52;服務業PMI初值為47,創2020年6月以來新低,並遠低於預期的52.6。

多項數據出台後,美國10年期國債孳息持續向下,昨日更跌至低見2.52厘,為今年4月份以來最低,反映市場相信經濟基本面正不斷惡化,資金重新流入債券,並預期聯儲局將會減慢加息步伐。美國銀行於本周一(1日)的客戶報告預測,在經濟顯著放緩下,孳息在未來6至12個月內有可能達到2厘。事實上,黃金作為無孳息的資產,當國債孳息下跌時,往往對金價表現有利。

新興國家央行增持黃金

值得留意的是,中國的經濟數據亦不容樂觀,第二季GDP按季收縮2.6%,遜預期的跌1.5%,按年升幅僅0.4%,同樣較預期的1%低;7月份製造業PMI再度跌穿榮枯線,數值為49,低於預期的50.4。鑑於兩大經濟體的經濟前景不穩,俄烏及兩岸局勢又再次緊張,股票等傳統風險資產於短期內或會相對波動,相信黃金能繼續發揮其避險特性。

除此之外,地緣政治紛爭持續引發歐美國家出台一系列制裁,部分國家憂慮持有美元或歐羅資產的風險將顯著增加,加上高通脹,央行對黃金需求自今年以來明顯上升。據世界黃金協會指出,環球央行於第二季增持近180噸黃金,按季急增一倍,但按年減少14%。事實上,目前部分新興國家普遍錄得雙位數的通脹,在長期保值、對抗通脹及儲備多元化的因素推動下,新興國家央行將持續增加黃金儲備,繼而支持金價表現。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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