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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
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  • 通脹及地緣政治升溫 續利好金價表現 (Chinese only)

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通脹及地緣政治升溫 續利好金價表現 (Chinese only)

通脹繼續是今年投資者關注的議題,隨著俄烏衝突一觸即發,阿聯酋遭胡塞武裝襲擊,令原油供給憂慮加劇。加上中美兩國原油庫存大幅下滑,進一步支撐油價升勢,為通脹火上加油。歷史上出現的高通脹情況,黃金價格表現往往優於其他資產價格,若同時牽涉到地緣政治緊張,黃金表現更是勢不可擋。全球最大的黃金ETF獲得上市以來最大的淨流入,反映資金正湧入黃金避險。

政局動盪黃金屢成資金避風港

1973年10月,因當時爆發中東戰爭令油價急升,從而導致通脹急劇升溫。美國通脹由1972年6月的2.7%,大幅飆升至1974年12月的12.3%;當時金價由64.1美元急升至192.25美元,上升共128.15美元,幅度達到200%。

1976年11月,當時通脹由4.9%大幅飆升至1980年3月的14.8%,期間金價在122.63美元大幅飆升至1980年1月的850美元,合共上升了727.37美元,幅度高達593%,並創下當時的歷史新高。伊朗挾持美國大使館人質及蘇聯入侵阿富汗亦於該段期間發生,避險情緒下造就了這股金價大升浪。

1986年12月,美國通脹由1.1%一直攀升至1990年10月的6.3%,這段期間金價亦由380.4美元急升至1987年12月502.75美元,幅度達至32.2%,及後反覆回落至1990年10月的400美元。

通脹大幅高於聯邦基金利率為歷史上首見

在2008年,美國出現金融海嘯,及後在2009年中開始出現經濟復甦。美國通脹由2009年7月的-2.1%,大幅回升至2011年9月的3.9%。在這段美國通脹回升期間,金價由909.5美元大幅攀升至1900.2美元,上升990.7美元,幅度達到109%,並創下當時的歷史新高。

值得注意的是,過去每一次的高通脹情況下,當時美國聯儲局的聯邦基金利率,一般都會較通脹率還要高。然而,目前美國通脹率達7%,但美國聯邦基金利率仍然維持在0%-0.25%目標水平,前者較後者高出甚多,可以說是美國立國以來從未見過的現象。

油價工資持續上升推高通脹

雖然美國即將步入加息週期,但估計油價和大宗商品價格,以及美國工資持續上升的帶動下,通脹不會因為聯儲局在短期內加息而有所回落。故此在美國通脹持續升溫下,估計金價可以力抗強勢美元而反覆向上。

回顧1970年至今,每一次油價的上升週期,都對金價提供重大支撐,況且過去油價上升的原因,部分是來自地緣政治的惡化。根據彭博報道,英美加三國正開始撤離駐烏克蘭的外交人員及家屬返國,突顯俄烏局勢緊張加劇。另外,加息潮即將來臨令美股調整壓力加大,加上虛擬貨幣市場同時遭遇拋售潮,全球最大的黃金ETF最近錄得上市以來的最大淨流入,而ETF的持倉變化正反映投資者的避險情緒正日益高漲,相信資金仍將繼續流入金市及黃金ETF,支持金價表現向好。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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