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  • 通脹及地緣政治升溫 續利好金價表現 (Chinese only)

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通脹及地緣政治升溫 續利好金價表現 (Chinese only)

通脹繼續是今年投資者關注的議題,隨著俄烏衝突一觸即發,阿聯酋遭胡塞武裝襲擊,令原油供給憂慮加劇。加上中美兩國原油庫存大幅下滑,進一步支撐油價升勢,為通脹火上加油。歷史上出現的高通脹情況,黃金價格表現往往優於其他資產價格,若同時牽涉到地緣政治緊張,黃金表現更是勢不可擋。全球最大的黃金ETF獲得上市以來最大的淨流入,反映資金正湧入黃金避險。

政局動盪黃金屢成資金避風港

1973年10月,因當時爆發中東戰爭令油價急升,從而導致通脹急劇升溫。美國通脹由1972年6月的2.7%,大幅飆升至1974年12月的12.3%;當時金價由64.1美元急升至192.25美元,上升共128.15美元,幅度達到200%。

1976年11月,當時通脹由4.9%大幅飆升至1980年3月的14.8%,期間金價在122.63美元大幅飆升至1980年1月的850美元,合共上升了727.37美元,幅度高達593%,並創下當時的歷史新高。伊朗挾持美國大使館人質及蘇聯入侵阿富汗亦於該段期間發生,避險情緒下造就了這股金價大升浪。

1986年12月,美國通脹由1.1%一直攀升至1990年10月的6.3%,這段期間金價亦由380.4美元急升至1987年12月502.75美元,幅度達至32.2%,及後反覆回落至1990年10月的400美元。

通脹大幅高於聯邦基金利率為歷史上首見

在2008年,美國出現金融海嘯,及後在2009年中開始出現經濟復甦。美國通脹由2009年7月的-2.1%,大幅回升至2011年9月的3.9%。在這段美國通脹回升期間,金價由909.5美元大幅攀升至1900.2美元,上升990.7美元,幅度達到109%,並創下當時的歷史新高。

值得注意的是,過去每一次的高通脹情況下,當時美國聯儲局的聯邦基金利率,一般都會較通脹率還要高。然而,目前美國通脹率達7%,但美國聯邦基金利率仍然維持在0%-0.25%目標水平,前者較後者高出甚多,可以說是美國立國以來從未見過的現象。

油價工資持續上升推高通脹

雖然美國即將步入加息週期,但估計油價和大宗商品價格,以及美國工資持續上升的帶動下,通脹不會因為聯儲局在短期內加息而有所回落。故此在美國通脹持續升溫下,估計金價可以力抗強勢美元而反覆向上。

回顧1970年至今,每一次油價的上升週期,都對金價提供重大支撐,況且過去油價上升的原因,部分是來自地緣政治的惡化。根據彭博報道,英美加三國正開始撤離駐烏克蘭的外交人員及家屬返國,突顯俄烏局勢緊張加劇。另外,加息潮即將來臨令美股調整壓力加大,加上虛擬貨幣市場同時遭遇拋售潮,全球最大的黃金ETF最近錄得上市以來的最大淨流入,而ETF的持倉變化正反映投資者的避險情緒正日益高漲,相信資金仍將繼續流入金市及黃金ETF,支持金價表現向好。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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