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  • 通脹未見頂金價現水平有支持 (Chinese only)

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通脹未見頂金價現水平有支持 (Chinese only)

美國於三月份開始進入加息周期,聯儲局主席鮑威爾上周更表示,下月或加息半厘以抑制通脹。隨著緊縮步伐加快,美債孳息率及美元持續走強,但對金價的打擊相當輕微,截至上周五(22日),紐約期金今年以來累漲逾5.5%。鑑於歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,通脹仍未降溫,避險情緒持續高漲下,料繼續利好金價表現。

大宗商品價格持續急升,美國三月份消費者物價指數(CPI)按年上漲8.5%,創41年以來新高。通脹失控,聯儲局接連有官員發表鷹派言論,聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德於本月初表明,美國年內需加息三厘以上;鮑威爾則指出,控制高通脹非常重要,加息半厘將會是下月議息會議的選項之一。

據世界黃金協會於4月6日的一篇分析指, 高通脹及加息預期的結合下,令美國國債孳息曲線越趨平坦,最終令美國兩年及十年期國債孳息曲線在3月底出現倒掛。孳息曲線倒掛,通常被認為是即將到來的衰退信號,刺激資金流入黃金避險,金價表現明顯跑贏其他風險資產。該協會又指,三個月及十年期孳息曲線趨平,金價往往表現出色。曲線趨平期間,黃金的年回報率超過5%,而曲線變陡時則略低於3%。

A股受壓提振黃金需求

中國疫情反彈,部分城市實施封城隔離,世界黃金協會於本月中指出,相關地區的出行限制,可能會短期抑制第二季度當地的黃金消費。數據顯示,3月份從上海黃金交易所提取的黃金總量為104噸,同比下降38%。雖然疫情防控措施暫時削弱實物黃金需求,但隨著滬深兩市持續受壓,今年首季分別蒸發10.6%及18.4%,本地投資者對黃金相關資產的需求明顯上升,抵銷實物黃金消費下跌的影響。3月份中國黃金ETF的總持倉量增至61.8噸(約39 億美元,245 億元人民幣),較2月底增加2.4噸(約1.5億美元或9.53億人民幣)。

外圍方面,除美國通脹持續高企外,歐元區三月份CPI及生產者物價指數(PPI)亦分別按年上升7.5%及31.4%,市場對歐洲央行加息的預期亦逐漸升溫。儘管全球主要央行正加快緊縮步伐,但通脹數據公佈後,金價表現仍反覆向好,反映市場認為通脹仍未見頂,為金價帶來有力的支撐。隨著俄烏談判再以失敗告終,俄軍隨即展開第二階段攻勢攻打烏克蘭東部的頓巴斯地區,烏克蘭總統澤連斯基強硬回應頓巴斯之戰已開始,並誓言烏軍力保每一寸國土與俄軍力戰到底,反映俄烏局勢正不斷惡化,只會進一步推高大宗商品價格,令通脹居高不下。另一方面,芬蘭及瑞典很大機會即將加入北約,加劇歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢,估計資金仍會繼續流入金市或黃金ETF避險,金價在現水平得到支持。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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