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金市債市或成資金避風港 (Chinese only)

西方國家通脹持續高企,歐美正迎來歷史上最快的加息周期。縱使在緊縮環境下不利金價表現,但高通脹正不斷侵蝕企業利潤及消費者購買力,持續的加息又恐為經濟帶來衰退風險,環球股市波動仍有可能會加劇,債市及金市有望成為資金避風港,因此市場上仍存在有利金價表現的因素。

俄軍侵烏加劇糧食危機

歐盟區上周二(31日)公布五月份通脹數據,在食品及能源價格飆升帶動下,消費物價指數(CPI)按年急升8.1%,不單高於預期的7.7%,更連續7個月創下歷史新高。核心CPI則按年漲3.8%,超過 4 月份的 3.5%,亦接近歐洲央行 2% 目標的一倍,表明通脹已經開始失控。歐盟就針對俄羅斯的制裁達成協議,今年底前將大幅削減九成俄國原油進口量。同時,美國進入自駕遊旺季及中國解封防疫措施下,進一步加深原油市場供不應求的狀況,意味油價只會持續居高不下。

俄烏戰火已持續超過三個月,俄烏兩國作為歐洲的重要糧倉,隨著烏克蘭部分國土在俄軍連番炮擊下已成一片廢墟,可耕作的土地面積已大大減少,小麥貿易極速縮減,日前更有消息指俄國將封鎖烏克蘭的糧食出口,並以此作為與歐美談判的籌碼。同時,部分國家正禁止部分糧食出口,令全球糧食危機進一步惡化,聯合國糧食組織此前警告,目前全球食品價格較去年同期急升近30%,若俄烏衝突持續,糧食危機可能延續數年之久。

美十年期國債孳息飆88%

隨著歐洲正面臨史無前例的物價飆升,歐洲央行從七月份開始加息的可能性顯著增加,甚至有機會仿效美國聯儲局大幅加息50個基點。事實上,在通脹及加息的雙重夾擊下,不少大型歐美企業正面對不斷上升的成本壓力,對於估值不菲的股份而言,更可能因為盈利表現不及預期而持續面臨估值修正,最終拖累股市表現。另外,高通脹亦不斷打擊消費者信心,歐美經濟向來以消費作主導,經濟有可能因此放緩,並同時出現滯脹。

隨著市場對滯脹的擔憂有增無減,股市表現或難以有起色,資金越來越有可能重新流入債市或金市。今年首五個月,美國十年期國債價格下滑超過8%,孳息率則急升逾88%;紐約期金於三月中曾升至2070美元兼創一年半高後持續回落,首五個月計表現則大致平穩。目前市場預計聯邦基金利率有望今年達到2.5%以上,同時可能會加劇美國經濟的衰退風險,促使資金流入債市避險,孳息率回落下,加上黃金向來被投資者視為抗衡通脹的工具,市場上暫不乏利好金價的因素。

 


本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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