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  • 黃金繼續成避險對象,金價有望展升勢 (Chinese only)

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黃金繼續成避險對象,金價有望展升勢 (Chinese only)

環球通脹持續高企,美國上月消費物價指數(CPI)更按年飆升7%創40年新高,聯儲局取向亦更鷹派,更表示將在3月底結束買債,令環球股債連日掀起波動。傳統上加息雖不利金價表現,但在避險情緒升溫下,加上早已消化加息因素,資金持續泊入黃金及相關ETF產品,金價有望能維持升勢。

金價已消化加息因素

據聯儲局公布的12月會議紀錄顯示,因應美國就業市場非常緊張,委員普遍認為有理由比原先預期更早及更快加息,亦有部分委員表明在首次加息後,便可以考慮開始縮減資產負債表的規模。雖然市場普遍認為聯儲局態度比過去更鷹派,但並沒有對金價造成太大影響。據歷史數據顯示,在過去的加息週期及縮表期間,金價表現往往較為堅挺,意味金價早在加息前已反映貨幣緊縮的因素。

回顧自1986年以來,聯儲局的五次加息週期當中,金價表現並未因此而下跌,反而錄得正回報,尤其是上一次的加息週期及縮表期間,即2017年11月至2019年8月,金價在這段期間仍錄得約20%的升幅。正如筆者在前文所說,因金融市場已經完全消化聯儲局將會收緊貨幣政策的訊息,所以一旦聯儲局落實執行相關政策時,金價反而開始回升。

美俄緊張關係再度加劇

除通脹憂慮揮之不去外,地緣政治日趨緊張亦加劇市場避險情緒,如哈薩克政府讓俄羅斯軍隊入境平亂;俄羅斯本周與北約就烏克蘭問題進行的多次磋商無果而終,前者更暗示會在古巴及委內瑞拉駐軍,令美俄緊張關係持續加劇。亞洲方面,北韓官方於上周三(12日)證實,成功進行高超音速導彈試射,並能成功命中一千公里外的目標。美國其後立即宣布,制裁多名北韓及俄羅斯公民,令兩韓局勢再起波瀾。

虛幣市場疲弱刺激資金回流金市

據世界黃金協會統計顯示,過去十年全球央行合共增持黃金儲備超過4500噸,數量達到3.6萬噸,黃金總儲備量增加至1990年以來最高水平。央行增加黃金儲備,一方面是抗通脹,第二方面則是因應美元強勢下,令這些央行的本國貨幣貶值,從而轉為增加黃金儲備。另外,比特幣在去年11月創下69020美元的歷史高位後持續下跌,虛擬貨幣市場氣氛疲弱,資金亦明顯回流至黃金及其相關ETF市場。

大行加入唱好大宗商品的行列,高盛環球商品研究部主管柯里(Jeff Currie)早前表示,對商品價格前景保持極度樂觀的看法,並再次重申商品市場依然處於超級上升週期,升勢可能維持數以年計,而黃金仍可有效對沖通脹失控或加息引發經濟衰退所帶來的影響,金價有望升超過100美元。總括而言,在後市仍存在眾多的不穩因素下,黃金亦繼續扮演避險角色,未來金價有望維持升勢。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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