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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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  • 黃金繼續成避險對象,金價有望展升勢 (Chinese only)

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黃金繼續成避險對象,金價有望展升勢 (Chinese only)

環球通脹持續高企,美國上月消費物價指數(CPI)更按年飆升7%創40年新高,聯儲局取向亦更鷹派,更表示將在3月底結束買債,令環球股債連日掀起波動。傳統上加息雖不利金價表現,但在避險情緒升溫下,加上早已消化加息因素,資金持續泊入黃金及相關ETF產品,金價有望能維持升勢。

金價已消化加息因素

據聯儲局公布的12月會議紀錄顯示,因應美國就業市場非常緊張,委員普遍認為有理由比原先預期更早及更快加息,亦有部分委員表明在首次加息後,便可以考慮開始縮減資產負債表的規模。雖然市場普遍認為聯儲局態度比過去更鷹派,但並沒有對金價造成太大影響。據歷史數據顯示,在過去的加息週期及縮表期間,金價表現往往較為堅挺,意味金價早在加息前已反映貨幣緊縮的因素。

回顧自1986年以來,聯儲局的五次加息週期當中,金價表現並未因此而下跌,反而錄得正回報,尤其是上一次的加息週期及縮表期間,即2017年11月至2019年8月,金價在這段期間仍錄得約20%的升幅。正如筆者在前文所說,因金融市場已經完全消化聯儲局將會收緊貨幣政策的訊息,所以一旦聯儲局落實執行相關政策時,金價反而開始回升。

美俄緊張關係再度加劇

除通脹憂慮揮之不去外,地緣政治日趨緊張亦加劇市場避險情緒,如哈薩克政府讓俄羅斯軍隊入境平亂;俄羅斯本周與北約就烏克蘭問題進行的多次磋商無果而終,前者更暗示會在古巴及委內瑞拉駐軍,令美俄緊張關係持續加劇。亞洲方面,北韓官方於上周三(12日)證實,成功進行高超音速導彈試射,並能成功命中一千公里外的目標。美國其後立即宣布,制裁多名北韓及俄羅斯公民,令兩韓局勢再起波瀾。

虛幣市場疲弱刺激資金回流金市

據世界黃金協會統計顯示,過去十年全球央行合共增持黃金儲備超過4500噸,數量達到3.6萬噸,黃金總儲備量增加至1990年以來最高水平。央行增加黃金儲備,一方面是抗通脹,第二方面則是因應美元強勢下,令這些央行的本國貨幣貶值,從而轉為增加黃金儲備。另外,比特幣在去年11月創下69020美元的歷史高位後持續下跌,虛擬貨幣市場氣氛疲弱,資金亦明顯回流至黃金及其相關ETF市場。

大行加入唱好大宗商品的行列,高盛環球商品研究部主管柯里(Jeff Currie)早前表示,對商品價格前景保持極度樂觀的看法,並再次重申商品市場依然處於超級上升週期,升勢可能維持數以年計,而黃金仍可有效對沖通脹失控或加息引發經濟衰退所帶來的影響,金價有望升超過100美元。總括而言,在後市仍存在眾多的不穩因素下,黃金亦繼續扮演避險角色,未來金價有望維持升勢。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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